Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
